'Atoms, not bits.' The biggest opportunities are in companies that manipulate the physical world, not just software. Willing to fund multi-year R&D timelines. Just raised the firm's largest fund ever ($1.5B, Jan 2026, oversubscribed). Invests at the intersection of science and engineering where structural technical advantages create durable moats. Core belief: the 'directional arrow of progress' in science is inevitable — you can bet on where science is going because it only moves forward. Lux looks for 'narrative violations' — moments when consensus is wrong and reality is about to prove it. Josh believes the best founders have 'a secret' — proprietary technical insight that others can't see or don't believe. Has been vocal that the defense tech renaissance is just beginning, not a trend.
Scientist-founders with breakthrough IP. Companies where the technology is genuinely hard to replicate. Hardware + software combinations. Deep tech with clear paths to commercialization. National security applications of cutting-edge technology. Founders who are 'narrative violators' — going against consensus with evidence. Companies at the intersection of software intelligence and physical-world manipulation.
Pure software plays without technical moats. Companies where the 'tech' is just an API wrapper. Business model innovation without technical innovation. Software-only products in crowded markets. Companies where the moat is brand or network effects rather than technical depth. Anything that could be replicated by a smart team in 6 months.
Lead with the science. Show what's technically novel and why it's hard. If anyone could build it with existing tools, it's not a Lux company. He wants to see breakthrough IP, not business model innovation. Bring a whiteboard and explain the physics. Show that you are a 'narrative violator' — that consensus is wrong about something and you have the evidence. Demonstrate deep domain expertise. If you're a scientist-founder, lean into your research background. Show a clear path from lab breakthrough to commercial product. If defense or national security is a use case, articulate it clearly — Josh has deep defense networks and can open doors. Be intellectually honest about what's hard and what the risks are.
The core Lux thesis: the biggest venture opportunities come from companies that manipulate the physical world — materials, energy, defense hardware, robotics — not pure software. Software margins are great but software moats are shallow. Physical-world companies have deeper moats because they're harder to build.
Science only moves forward. Once a technical breakthrough is made, it cannot be unlearned. The key to deep tech investing is identifying which scientific 'arrows' are accelerating fastest and positioning in front of them. This creates a structurally optimistic view of frontier technology.
The best investments happen at the gap between consensus narrative and emerging reality. When everyone believes something that is about to be proven wrong, the contrarian position creates asymmetric returns. Lux actively seeks these moments across science and technology.
True competitive advantage comes from doing something technically hard that others cannot replicate. Business model innovation, network effects, and brand are fragile compared to genuine technical difficulty. If a PhD team couldn't replicate your technology in 2 years, you have a real moat.
The best deep tech companies come from translating academic breakthroughs into commercial products. Lux scouts university labs, national labs, and defense research programs to find the scientists who will become founders. The fund acts as a bridge between academic research and venture-backable companies.
Weekly newsletter curating the best in science, technology, and deep tech. Cult following among deep tech enthusiasts. Each edition weaves together threads from scientific papers, defense developments, manufacturing breakthroughs, and frontier technology. Co-authored with team.
Science only moves in one direction — forward. The key to deep tech investing is identifying which 'arrows' are moving fastest and betting on founders who are riding them. You can't uninvent knowledge — so technical breakthroughs create permanent, irreversible advantages.
The best investments happen when consensus narrative is about to be violated by reality. Look for moments where everyone believes X but evidence points to Y. The gap between narrative and reality is where alpha lives.
“Atoms, not bits. The biggest opportunities are in companies that manipulate the physical world.”
— Lux Capital founding thesis / multiple talks
“The directional arrow of progress in science only points one way. You can't uninvent knowledge.”
— Multiple podcast appearances
“We look for narrative violations — moments when the consensus is wrong and reality is about to prove it.”
— Invest Like the Best podcast
“If a smart team could replicate what you're building in six months, it's not a Lux company.”
— Interviews
“The best defense companies of the next decade will be software companies that happen to make hardware, not hardware companies that happen to use software.”
— Defense tech discussions
“We started Lux in the ashes of the dot-com bust. Everyone was running away from technology. We ran toward the hardest parts of it.”
— Multiple interviews
“I'd rather be wrong and contrarian than right and consensus. The asymmetry of returns favors the contrarian.”
— Podcast appearances
“Every material breakthrough eventually becomes a company. Our job is to find the scientists who will make that transition.”
— Lux Recommends newsletter
Co-founded Lux Capital in 2000 at age 23 with Peter Hébert. Studied at NYU (economics and entrepreneurship). Started investing in deep tech when no one else would — was laughed at for wanting to invest in 'science projects' during the consumer internet boom. Built Lux into the premier deep tech venture firm, now managing over $5B across multiple funds. Deep networks in the defense community, academic research labs (MIT, Stanford, Caltech), and national security apparatus. Served on the Defense Innovation Board (advisory to the US Department of Defense). Known for his intellectual voraciousness — reads widely across science, history, philosophy, and military strategy. Co-founded Lux during the dot-com bust, which shaped his contrarian investing style.